3.1 Power Supply and Transmission Introduction and Policy Language from SD15
EWEB Climate Change Policy SD15 – Power Supply & Transmission Section
The Board is committed to supporting a low-carbon electric power portfolio that maintains, on a planning basis, over 90% of annual energy from carbon-free resources and targets over 95% of annual energy from carbon-free resources by 2030 to the extent possible and practical without distinct adverse impacts to customer-owners.
Using the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) process including final adoption by resolution (GP7), the Board will work with the General Manager to establish the long-term (20-year) principles, priorities, approaches, definitions (including carbon-free, carbon intensity), measurements, and goals for the electric generation portfolio, demand response, conservation and energy efficiency, and customer impact limitations (including but not limited to reliability, cost, and equity) supporting this directive.
EWEB is unique in Oregon as a public utility that both owns generation resources and relies on the Bonneville Power Administration (BPA) for a share of the federal power system. EWEB is also an active participant in the regional energy market. EWEB is the third largest electric utility (behind Portland General Electric and PacifiCorp) and the largest consumer-owned municipal utility in the state in terms of customers served. EWEB is the fourth largest electric utility (behind Portland General Electric, PacifiCorp, and Umatilla Electric Cooperative) in terms of total electricity sales.
EWEB’s long-term power supply decisions must be made within the context of state and regional climate policy and changing regulations, rising energy demands via customer decarbonization / electrification efforts, and the physical realities of a changing climate on temperatures and hydro conditions.
Content currently included in v3.0:
- Load Forecast
- Integrated Resource Plan (IRP)
- 2025 Energy Resource Study & BPA contract decision information to date
- 2023 Integrated Resource Plan
- EWEB's 2020 and 2021 Electrification Studies showing expected load growth through 2040
Content planned for future Guidebook Versions:
- 2025 Demand Side Potential Assessment
- 2025 Energy Resource Study & BPA 2028 Provider of Choice Contract Product Decision
Explore this webpage: 3.2 Load Forecast | 3.3 Demand Side Potential Assessment |
3.4 Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) Process | 3.5 Electrification Study
3.2 Load Forecast
In early 2020, EWEB’s management and Commissioners agreed to develop a better understanding of the impacts of
EWEB has developed a regression-based load forecast to analyze historical data and predict future energy demand or “load”. Key variables include historical load information, weather variables, economic indicators, and seasonal or temporal factors. Known drivers with a direct impact on EWEB's load were incorporated into the forecast. These drivers include anticipated trends in light-duty vehicle electrification as well as projected growth in the industrial sector based on discussions with EWEB’s largest customers.
The load forecast reflects EWEB’s commitment to understanding evolving electricity consumption patterns. It serves as a strategic tool to guide decisions and investments in electricity generation, delivery infrastructure, rate design, and customer program development. The forecasts are designed to prepare EWEB for a variety of potential future scenarios. They do not advocate specific positions nor fully align with the targets or assumptions of other agencies but aim to provide an informed and adaptive perspective.
EWEB's forecast plays a critical role in utility planning, resource allocation, and reliability management within its service territory. Additionally, it contributes to regional planning efforts by informing reliability and resource adequacy metrics. This ensures a robust and dependable system at both the local and regional levels.
Overall, EWEB’s 2025 load forecast anticipates increases in average and peak energy use over the next 20 years. This is primarily due to increased electrification of light duty vehicles and modest population growth of 1% per year over the next two decades. The chart below shows the 2025 load forecast and illustrates the impacts of EWEB’s existing conservation programs continuing into the future.
3.3 2025 Demand Side Potential Assessment
EWEB's 2023 Integrated Resource Plan projected that, by 2028, electricity consumption could outpace our current energy conservation efforts due to electrification trends and population growth. To better understand the potential to offset future load growth, the 2023 IRP action plan directed staff to conduct a Demand Side Potential Assessment to estimate the cost and potential for demand-side measures to offset anticipated growth in customer energy and peak capacity consumption. Furthermore, EWEB wanted to understand the potential impacts of customer-owned solar as well as electrification on EWEB’s loads in the future.
In early 2024, EWEB staff began work on a Demand Side Potential Assessment (DSPA) over the 2024-2045 time period. The DSPA was separated into two phases:
- Phase 1 - Conservation Potential Assessment and Demand Response Potential Assessment with initial deliverables in Q1 2025 and final deliverables in Q2 2025.
- Phase 2 - Electrification Potential Assessment and Customer-Owned Solar Photovoltaic Potential Assessment with initial and final deliverables in Q2 2025.
The deliverables from this study, especially those from Phase 1 will provide essential input assumptions for EWEB's Integrated Resource Planning model, enabling direct cost-effectiveness comparisons between demand-side options (energy conservation and demand response) and supply-side options (wind, solar, utility-scale batteries, etc.). Additionally, the DSPA will assist in determining how customer programs could meet EWEB's long-term energy needs over the next 20 years.
Results of this study will be provided in Climate Guidebook v4.0 (expected publication April 2026).
3.4 Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) Process
What is an IRP?
An Integrated Resource Plan is a long-term planning process to identify EWEB’s energy needs and the best resource options to meet those needs. There are two main components to a standard IRP: an Energy Resource Study that relies on modeling and analysis and public input to provide a 20-year look at future portfolio options and a nearer-term (2-5 year) Action Plan. Best resource options will be identified in accordance with EWEB’s organizational values.
An IRP is a long-term modeling exercise to assess a utility’s energy needs over the next 20 years and identify the best mix of resource options to meet those needs. Unlike Investor-Owned Utilities (IOUs), EWEB as a public utility is not required to complete an IRP on a specific timeframe. EWEB had completed an IRP in 2011, but with demand staying steady, had not undergone a full-scale IRP again until 2022-2023. EWEB is now planning to conduct regular IRPs on a 2-year cycle. For 2025, staff are preparing an Energy Resource Study (ERS) to compare the BPA product options for the 20-year Provider of Choice contract. The 2025 ERS will be used to inform management’s BPA product recommendation.
These long-term power supply decisions are made within the context of state and regional climate policy and changing regulations, rising energy demands via customer decarbonization / electrification efforts, and the physical realities of a changing climate on temperatures and hydro conditions. Additionally, EWEB must live our values, one of which is to maintain a focus on affordability. The climate benefits of electrification depend on both the cost and the carbon content of electricity. If the shift to low-carbon power supplies causes a material increase in electric rates, the incentive to electrify will be reduced, and the overall cost burden on average customers will increase. Keeping EWEB rates low is climate action.
Power purchases represent the largest share of each customer dollar EWEB receives, so we must be especially cognizant of how we source our wholesale power. Additionally, the carbon intensity of EWEB’s power relates directly to the carbon reduction benefit of electrification.
Through EWEB’s IRP process, EWEB will develop resource plans to meet the SD15 goal for getting to 95% carbon-free resources by 2030 on a planning basis. Actual annual emissions will be influenced by real customer demand (driven by local weather patterns and customer behavior) and EWEB’s changing need to rely on market purchases to balance customer demand and resources continuously. For example, EWEB’s current portfolio is predominantly hydro power, so poor water years with low hydro supply will likely cause EWEB to make additional market purchases to balance supply and demand.
3.4.1 2025 Energy Resource Study
BPA sells power from 31 federal dams and a nuclear plant (called the Federal Columbia River Power System or “FCRPS”), which provide EWEB with cost-based, low-carbon, dispatchable power. Historically, BPA’s costs have been relatively low due to the size and scale of these legacy assets. EWEB’s current 17-year take-or-pay[1] BPA power contract is called the Regional Dialogue Contract and is set to expire in September 2028. This BPA contract costs EWEB approximately $80 million annually and provides roughly 80% of EWEB’s energy. Negotiations for BPA’s next contract offering, referred to as the Provider of Choice (PoC) contracts, are underway. The regional negotiations involve in-depth discussion and analysis of various power products that BPA intends to make available to their customers[2], as well as other contract and rate principles. For example, this includes contract details such as billing determinants and organized market compatibility. Customers expect to be asked to sign BPA PoC contracts in December of 2025.
Within the 2025 ERS, staff will compile useful information for making the BPA product decision in 2025. The completion of this ERS in mid-2025 will allow EWEB management to review the study results before preparing a BPA product recommendation and a first draft of an IRP action plan. In Q4 2025, the Board will review management’s recommendation and endorse an Action Plan, including a BPA product selection.
Links and Relevant Resources:
- 2025 Energy Resource Study Board of Commissioners Presentations:
- Board of Commissioners Regular Meeting – March 5, 2024: 2025 IRP & Energy Resource Study Kickoff, Scope & Analytical Plan
- Board of Commissioners Regular Meeting – July 9, 2024: 2025 Energy Resource Study: BPA Product Choice Overview
- Board of Commissioners Regular Meeting – September 3, 2024: Annual Energy Resource Study Update
- Board of Commissioners Work Session – October 15, 2024: Qualitative Considerations for BPA Product Choice
- Board of Commissioners Regular Meeting – December 3, 2024: 2025 Energy Resource Study: Initial Results of BPA Quantitative Analysis
- EWEB Website: 2023 Integrated Resource Plan
- 2023 Integrated Resource Plan Fact Sheets:
- Is Solar a Good Fit for Our Community’s Energy Needs?
- How can EWEB’s IRP Incorporate Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion?
- What are Considerations Around Utility-Scale Storage in EWEB’s Future Portfolio?
- IRP Next Steps: How and When Will EWEB Acquire New Resources?
- Planning for Long-term Carbon Reduction Goals in the IRP
3.4.1 2023 IRP
The 2023 IRP used modeling software to determine a reference case, built on a set of assumptions, along with a set of sensitivity analyses. The full modeling results and the near-term Action Plan were published in July 2023.
Key insights from the 2023 modeling and analysis included:
- Energy demand will rise: While our overall demand has fallen or remained flat in recent years despite population growth due to conservation investments, we expect this trend to change starting around 2030 due to electrification.
- Peak needs will continue to occur during the winter: For the next 20 years, EWEB is expected to remain a winter-peaking utility despite the impacts of climate change that are expected to increase summer demand. The primary driver for increased peak energy use is unmanaged electric vehicle charging.
- Hydropower is a good fit: Currently more than 80% of EWEB’s energy comes from hydropower, both from BPA and EWEB-owned projects on the McKenzie and Clackamas Rivers. IRP analysis points towards BPA hydropower remaining a cost-effective, low-carbon way to meet most of EWEB’s needs.
- Wind and batteries are promising options: The IRP modeling analysis indicated that a combination of wind and batteries is a competitive option to meet growing demand in the future.
- Customer Partnerships will be vital: Customers are likely to play an integral role in helping reduce peak energy usage. Programs such as conservation, demand response, and new rates designs, such as time-of-use rates, were all indicated as competitive options across various portfolios.
- Zero-carbon, dispatchable resources will likely be necessary in the future: As EWEB and the Pacific Northwest region pursue full decarbonization, there will likely be a need for dispatchable resources that do not create emissions and can be relied upon for extended periods of time.
The 2023 IRP Action Plan included several action items outlined below with status updates:
- BPA Contract: EWEB committed to participating in BPA’s “Provider of Choice” regional negotiations and to incorporate BPA product details into future IRP modeling as information becomes available. Update: staff continue to actively engage in regional discussions to define a post-2028 BPA contract. This process involves over a hundred utilities who all have a right to cost-based preference power from BPA.
- Conservation/Demand Response: EWEB committed to commissioning a study to quantify the amount and cost of available energy efficiency/conservation and availability and value of demand response within EWEB’s territory through 2045. Update: EWEB has initiated this Demand-Side Potential Assessment, and the work is expected to be completed in 2025.
- Existing Energy Resources Contracts: EWEB committed to engaging with existing local resource contracts to improve terms and identify future generation opportunities. Update: EWEB’s Board has extended the joint operation contract for the 25 MW steam turbine generator located on International Paper’s property through September 2028 to align with the current BPA contract. This extension fills resource gaps in the portfolio and benefits EWEB customers, including International Paper.
- Western Markets Analysis: Update: EWEB conducted a Power Markets Gap Analysis to identify investments required in systems, processes, and resources to participate in new markets.
- Ongoing IRP Modeling Refinements: Update: EWEB analysts continue to identify modeling improvements such as incorporating monthly capacity targets (instead of annual) into our least-cost portfolio selection process. These monthly targets are anticipated to impact EWEB’s least-cost portfolio solutions by identifying a resource mix which helps meet EWEB’s growing summer peak needs in addition to our higher winter peak capacity requirements. This enhancement is also expected to better align with the reliability standards utilized in the Western Resource Adequacy Program.
- Prepare for the 2025 IRP: Update: EWEB will publish Energy Resource Study results 2025.
3.5 Electrification Study (Phase 1 – 2020, Phase 2 – 2021)
In early 2020, EWEB’s management and Commissioners agreed to develop a better understanding of the impacts of electrification on EWEB’s future planning efforts. EWEB’s first Electrification Study (released in November 2020), focused on the potential impacts of electrification without analyzing the costs to customers choosing to electrify. The Phase 2 report from 2021 built on the 2020 analysis by considering the economics of electrification from multiple perspectives.
In both studies, the sources of electrification analyzed within the transportation sector focused on light-duty vehicle electrification, while the building sector analysis focused on the electrification of space and water heating technologies for existing residential and small commercial buildings. Heavy-duty transportation electrification and industrial electrification were outside the scope of the analysis.
These reports reflect EWEB’s ongoing assessment of evolving electricity consumption patterns that will help guide decisions and investments associated with electricity generation, delivery infrastructure, utility rate design, and customer program development. These studies do not advocate a position, or necessarily fully align with other agency targets or assumptions but are an attempt to inform and prepare EWEB for a range of different future conditions. These electrification studies form the foundation of EWEB’s current load forecasting practices, which are updated and published as part of the Integrated Resource Planning and Energy Resource Study efforts.
Links and Relevant Resources:
- EWEB Website: EWEB is Exploring the Impacts of Widespread Electrification in our Community
- EWEB Electrification Study – Phase 1 Report (Oct 2020)
- EWEB Electrification Study – Phase 2 Report (Nov 2021)
[1] In a take-or-pay contract, the buyer takes the product from the supplier or pays the supplier a penalty. Effectively, EWEB is committing to purchase power from BPA whether or not EWEB actually takes delivery of such power.
[2] BPA customers include over 130 Northwest (NW) entities including NW public utilities, like EWEB, and a few direct use industrial customers
